The 15th edition of the annual Global Peace Index report, the world’s leading measure of this study, revealed that in 2021 the average level of world peace deteriorated for the ninth time in 13 years. In total, 86 countries improved their peace in the report, while 75 deteriorated. Rising civil unrest was identified as an emerging risk factor, with riots, general strikes and anti-government demonstrations escalating substantially since 2011. On top of this COVID-19 research provides an insight of a world that faces higher risks in most GPI measures, due to the emerging economic crisis, which is projected to be the worst since World War II.
Iceland remains the most peaceful country in the world, a position it has held since 2008. It is joined at the top of the index by New Zealand, Denmark and Portugal. Afghanistan remains the least peaceful country, a position it has held for four years, followed by Syria, Iraq and South Sudan. The greatest improvement in calmness occurred in the Middle East and North Africa region, which saw progress in the categories of Ongoing Conflict and Security, with Iraq registering the greatest improvement of any country.
North America registered the greatest deterioration in tranquillity due to problems in Violent Demonstrations and Political Instability. However, the Middle East and North Africa remains the least peaceful region. The fundamental tensions of the last decade around conflict, environmental pressures and socio-economic struggles persist. The economic impact of COVID-19 is likely to amplify these tensions by increasing unemployment, inequality and worsening working conditions, creating alienation from the political system and increasing civil unrest.
The Covid-19 pandemic contributed significantly to the deterioration of world peace in the last couple of years, generating violent protests and political instability in a greater number of countries. The report indicates that last year there were nearly 15,000 violent demonstrations and riots globally. Countries such as India, Chile, Italy, France, Germany and South Africa were among the hardest hit by protests against lockdowns.
On the other hand, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Switzerland, Lithuania, Norway, the Netherlands and Ireland, are indicated to be in the best position to recover from Covid-19. The Global Peace Index also indicates that deaths associated with terrorism decreased for the sixth consecutive year, while signs of a reduction in the militarisation within society were observed. The Covid-19 pandemic accelerated changes in global calm, and while there was a decline in conflict and terrorism in 2021, political instability and violent demonstrations are still on the rise.
The key trend identified in this year’s report is the rising level of civil unrest around the world. A good number of first world countries have experienced violent protests, notably in USA, as citizens protested a range of issues, including economic inequality, police brutality, political leadership, and rising violence. the prices of key resources. This reflects a longer-term trend, with riots around the world increasing by 282% in the last decade, while general strikes have increased by 821%. Europe experienced the most protests, riots and strikes, yet only 35% of the 1,600 in total were recorded as violent; the lowest percentage in the world.
The report identifies a 4.4% improvement in Militarization since 2008, in line with increasing United Nations peacekeeping funding in 2019. The number of arms importing and exporting countries has also fallen to levels not seen since 2009. However, improvements in contributions to peacekeeping are likely to be short-lived as governments direct funds to boost their economies to aid their pandemic recovery.
The death toll from terrorism also continues to decline, with total terrorism deaths dropping to just under 10,000, down from 33,555 in 2015. Similarly, the homicide rate indicator has over the last decade has improved in 57 countries, with a 42 decrease. In El Salvador, the country with the highest number of homicides per 100,000 people, has seen its rate decrease by 25%. Overall, the economic impact of violence in fell to $14.5 trillion, or 10.6% of global GDP due to fewer deaths caused by conflict.
Environmental pressures continue to negatively affect peace. The Ecological Threat Register indicates that 27% of countries will face catastrophic pressures on water and 22% will face catastrophic pressures on food by 2050. The report also indicates that there were some 2.26 billion people living in areas with high or very high exposure to climate hazards, with 1.24 billion of these people already living in countries with low levels of peace. By 2050, climate change will create up to 143 million migrants globally, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (86 million), South Asia (40 million) and Latin America (17 million).
Special research conducted by the Institute for Economics and Peace has shown that COVID-19 is negatively impacting the world, with nations becoming increasingly polarised in their ability to maintain peace and security. This reveals the potential of the virus to undo years of socio-economic development, exacerbate humanitarian crises, fuel conflict and ignite unrest.
The IEP identifies the economic impact of lockdowns as a major threat to peace. Reductions in domestic aid are expected to shrink economies, destabilising fragile and conflict-affected countries, including Liberia, Afghanistan and South Sudan. Countries with low credit ratings, such as Brazil, Pakistan and Argentina, could also struggle to borrow, repay debt and sustain their economies, leading to an increased risk of political instability, uprisings and violence.
Despite this, economically stable countries are witnessing the heaviest disruption as leaders come under increasing pressure regarding the COVID-19 response. Increased political instability is expected in North America & Europe, with further uprisings and general strikes are expected. That said, the economic impact of the virus could have had a more positive impact on proxy wars, as they have become more complex to finance amid the economic downturn. Saying this, escalating conflicts, tensions between the United States and China, friction amongst multilateral organisations such as the WHO, WTO, and the UN Security Council are all on the rise
For the first time in a GPI report Europe was recognised as the most peaceful region globally, yet this may be short-lived by the time of the next study. Coupled with the ongoing current crisis between the game of chess being played out in Ukraine between Russia and the West it is a clear indicator that the previous normality of escalating conflicts is resuming post-Covid and the threat of new global alliances may result in a very volatile peace index in the future.
Sean Campbell
